Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Should I stay or should I go? (Becoming a Global TEFL/TESOL Job  Applicant)

Many people are often hesitant to pull up stakes and hightail it across the ocean to search for better opportunity, however, given the outlooks for job growth in the USA and Europe these days, and for the foreseeable future, now is perhaps the best time to (follow what for many are their ancestral patterns of immigration) and consider looking for employment overseas.  

Increasingly individuals, corporations and financial institutions are looking to Asia as the place for employment, market expansion and low cost production. (Don’t believe all the fear and horrible stories about acclimatizing and immigration. It truly depends on the location you end up selecting and the manner in which you are employed which makes all the difference.)

A recent article posted on Yahoo news indicated in may be years before the Western economies cycle back into a period of decisive growth.

Amid bleak economic growth and unemployment, the stock market swoon, and the downgrade of the credit rating of the federal government, the fear of a dreaded double-dip recession--or even of a 21st-century Great Depression--has been taking hold.

But a rough consensus among economists may be starting to emerge. According to this line of thinking, although a double-dip is certainly possible, a long period of stagnation--that is, frustratingly low growth--is more likely, much like what we've seen since the recession officially ended two years ago. That would be preferable to another recession, of course. But it would mean that ordinary Americans--especially the roughly 26 million who either can't find a job or have given up looking--can look forward to years of hardship.

"I think extended stagnation, rather than a double-dip, is most likely," Mark Thoma, an economics professor at the University of Oregon, told The Lookout.

An Associated Press survey of economists released Tuesday put the likelihood of a recession--that is, another two or more straight quarters of economic contraction--before August 2012 at only 26 percent. But the respondents also expected the economy to inch along at just 2.1 percent growth for the rest of the year, and to barely do better in 2012.

The Federal Reserve appears to take a similar view. Announcing earlier this month that it would hold interest rates near zero for at least another two years, the central bank said it "now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters" than it had previously--a prediction that's consistent with a lengthy period of weak growth.

And J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all cut their growth forecasts last week, with J.P. Morgan predicting just 1 percent growth for the fourth quarter of the year--lower even than the 1.3 percent figure from the second quarter that helped spark double-dip speculation. Morgan Stanley cited in part the federal government's expected spending cuts, which would likely have a negative effect on growth.

Some economists think the focus on the double-dip is counter-productive, because it downplays the damage that a lengthy period of weak growth would do.

"The goal isn't to stay above zero," Jared Bernstein, who recently stepped down as an economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, wrote last week. "It's to grow fast enough to put people back to work."

Bernstein argues that instead of focusing narrowly on whether the economy is growing or shrinking, we should look at whether the economy is meeting its potential growth rate, which, based on productivity and the growth of the labor force, is 2.4 percent. By that standard, we've been in what Bernstein calls a "growth recession"--a period when the economy is technically expanding, but not by enough to exceed its potential--since the middle of last year.

According to some scholars, history suggests that's not likely to change any time soon. In a paper written last year for the Kansas City Fed, economists Carmen and Vincent Reinhart found that the impact on the economy and job growth of an economic "shock" like the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis typically lingers for around a decade. "Income growth tends to slow and unemployment remains elevated for a very long time after a severe shock," they wrote, predicting "a lengthy period of retrenchment."

Even longer-term trends may be in play, too. In his recent e-book, The Great Stagnation, George Mason University economics professor Tyler Cowen argues that developed economies worldwide are in the midst of a slowdown, because the pace of innovation is slowing. For the developed world, large-scale, growth-generating improvements like electricity, penicillin and mass education are all largely completed. The next wave of similar advances--the Internet being the prime example--aren't employing as many people as those that came before.

According to Thoma, the rise in long-term joblessness--already at record levels--that would accompany prolonged stagnation would likely lead to a glut of people dropping out of the labor force entirely, after spending months or years searching fruitlessly for work. Many of these would likely be older workers who decide to simply hang on until Social Security kicks in.

Other workers, especially those in fast-moving industries like technology, would see their skills erode, making it even harder for them to find work, Thoma said. And even those who found work would likely see a reduction in their lifetime earnings, the evidence suggests.

As Thoma summed it up: "The longer the recovery drags on, the more permanent the damage is likely.

As a result, English language will continue to expand as the international language of business and prosperity. The demand for certified English Language Instructors will mirror this increased demand around the globe, but perhaps nowhere more than in Asian markets.  

For those who don't already know, TEFL Chiang Mai offers our basic TEFL certification is one of the most affordable accredited hands on TEFL courses offered in Asia or anywhere for that matter. (In fact the Chiang Mai course is 5,000 THB less than other Paradise TEFL locations in Thailand and about $333 USD less than other locations in Asia!)

In addition to the substantial savings over other programs all over the world, TEFL Chiang Mai in particular is offering the Advanced TEFL Certification for the same price as the basic certification when you enroll now and attend class before December 2011. This means that in addition to the basic TEFL certification you will also receive authorization to teach Business English, English for Special Purposes, English for Academic Purposes, Teaching English for Young Learners, Teaching IELTS Prep, Teaching TOFEL Prep, Teaching TOEIC Prep, and Teaching PET Prep.

 

Many of those who already have experience as TEFL instructors are finding that becoming a certified TEFL trainer is another opportunity and feather in their cap in terms of meeting the demand of TEFL instructors (who are leaving their home countries and working abroad) by teaching others how to teach TEFL effectively. Whatever plan of action unemployed educator decides to take, in general, the more accredited certifications, flexibility toward global relocation and related experience one maintains, the easier it becomes to find work.

We at TEFL Chiang Mai English Language Certification  (a fully accredited and globally recognized TEFL program) strive for our students  to learn conversational English with the latest proven strategies and methods, but share up to date pedagogy and strategies as part of our teachers career development through the latest teaching paradigms. Graduates with these additional certifications have the advantage of substantially increasing their marketability and employment status. This is a limited offer available only at the TEFL Chiang Mai location. Improve your chances of getting a good job with higher a higher level of pay by enrolling today!